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Scenario Planning

The Point of View of Quintiq


How do you become a scenario planning expert?
by Ilka Schulte - Marketing Executive, Quintiq

What if:
- You lost one of your biggest clients tomorrow?
- A product launch had to be delayed?
- One of your suppliers hit a bottleneck?
- Would you know what to do?

A lot of people wouldn’t. A scenario planning expert would.

When Dr. Freek Aertsen co-hosted a Quintiq webinar with Dr. Michiel Jansen on scenario planning towards effective S&OP, he asked participants how often they conducted scenario planning. 24% of respondents did very little or none at all. 48% only conducted scenario planning when discussing changes in demand versus forecast.

These numbers are reflective of industry averages. Given how vital scenario planning is to a company’s stability and profitability, I’m always surprised at these results. Supply chains are complex. If, for example, one of your suppliers is suddenly unable to provide what you need, it is essential to have a plan in place so you don’t lose any revenue or customers. Most people agree with this, so what’s stopping them from including scenario planning in their sales and operations planning (S&OP) process?

Dr. Aertsen explained that it usually comes down to three things:
- companies lack the correct tools,
- they feel it’s too complex
- and they think they don’t have the time.

 


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