Key findings

• Output falls across US, China, euro area and Japan
• Job losses registered for second successive month
• International trade volumes fall

December saw the downturn in the global manufacturing sector continue. Although the rate of decline in production eased slightly, the level of new business fell at a sharper pace. The four-largest industrial economies – mainland China, the US, the euro area and Japan – all saw output and new work contract.

The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ – a composite index produced by J.P.Morgan and S&P Global in association with ISM and IFPSM – fell to a 30-month low of 48.6 in December and remained below the neutral mark of 50.0 for the fourth straight month. Excluding the lows registered during the early months of the global pandemic, the current PMI reading is the lowest since the first half of 2009.

Later-than-usual releases dates meant that December manufacturing PMI data for Kazakhstan and Thailand were not available for inclusion in the global numbers. Japan flash data have been used as a substitute for the final data due for release later this week.

Only seven out of the 29 nations for which December data were available had a PMI reading in expansion territory – India, Russia, Mexico, Colombia, Indonesia, the Philippines and Australia. The US, the UK and Brazil were the largest nations ranking towards the lower reaches of the PMI league table.

Global manufacturing production declined for the fifth successive month in December, although the rate of contraction was slightly slower than November's 29-month record. The trend in demand fared worse, with new orders falling at the quickest pace for over two-and-a-half years and new export business declining to one of the greatest extents since mid-2020.

Data broken down by sector suggested that the downturn in production was centred on the intermediate goods industry, as output rose slightly in both the consumer and investment goods categories. All three sub-sectors saw new order inflows deteriorate, with the steepest reduction again at intermediate goods producers.

The downturn in industry was reflected in the labour market, with manufacturing jobs cut for the second month running. The rate of decline was only slight, as losses in nations such as China, Brazil and the UK were partly offset by gains in the US, the euro area and Japan.

There were also signs that the outlook for production volumes may be stabilising, as business optimism rose to a four-month high and the cyclically sensitive new orders-to-finished goods inventories ratio edged higher. Post-production stocks fell for the first time in seven months, while input inventories declined for the second month in a row. Part of the reason for the reduction in the latter was a sharp drop in purchasing activity at manufacturers, as companies continued to dispose of safety stocks built up in response to supply disruptions earlier in 2022.

There was also better news of the prices front, as rates of inflation in both input costs and output charges eased to 26- and 24-month lows respectively. Increases in both price measures remained steeper (on average) in developed nations compared to emerging markets.