The performance of the global manufacturing sector showed a further incremental improvement at the start of 2020. Rates of expansion in output and new orders accelerated, but remained consistent with only modest increases in both cases. The trends in employment and international trade volumes also moved closer to stabilising.

The J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI – a composite index produced by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM – rose to a nine-month high of 50.4 in January, a reading only slightly above the stagnation mark of 50.0. The PMI posted 50.1 in December.

Please note that due to a later release date, final numbers for the Mexico Manufacturing PMI were not available to include in the Global PMI calculation. Kazakhstan PMI data are now included in the global calculation. Historical time series data for the global manufacturing indices have been updated following the annual review of national weights.

Sector PMI data indicated that the upturn was confined to the consumer and intermediate goods industries. Business conditions at consumer goods producers improved at the fastest pace for nine months, while the Intermediate Goods PMI signalled growth for the first time since December 2018. The downturn at investment goods producers continued, as output and new order inflows contracted further.

National PMIs signalled expansions for 14 out of the 30 countries for which January data were available. The strongest expansions were seen in India and Greece, while the US was just outside of the top-five. China also saw growth, while downturns were indicated for the euro area and Japan. The UK saw a stabilisation in manufacturing conditions.

Measured overall, global manufacturing output rose for the sixth successive month in January, underpinned for a fourth consecutive expansion of new orders. Growth of new business hit a 13-month high, but was nonetheless lacklustre as the trend in new export business remained a constraint. International trade volumes declined for the seventeenth month running, despite moving closer to stabilising.

Global manufacturing employment fell for the eighth time in the past nine months in January. However, the rate of job losses was only slight overall. Among the largest industrial regions covered by the survey, staffing levels rose in the US, Japan, India, the UK and Brazil. Losses were registered in the euro area, China, South Korea and Australia.

The start of 2020 saw a mild uptick in the rate of input price inflation, which accelerated to a seven-month high in January. Part of the increase in costs was passed on in the form of higher output charges, which rose (albeit only slightly) for the third straight month.

Business optimism improved to a near one-and-a-half year high in January. Confidence strengthened (on average) in both emerging markets and developed nations, hitting 22- and 12-month records respectively.