At 50.6 in February, the J.P.Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI™ – a composite index1produced by J.P.Morgan and IHS Markit in association with ISM and IFPSM –fell to its lowest level since June 2016. Operating conditions improved in the consumer and investment goods sectors, but deteriorated in the intermediate goods category.

Due to a later-than-usual release date, Manufacturing PMI data for South Korea and Taiwan were not available to include in the February 2019 global readings.

PMI readings signalled expansion in 18 out of the 29 nations for which February data were available. Among the largest countries covered by the survey, above global average growth was signalled in the US, the UK, India, Brazil, Mexico, Canada and Australia. The Japan PMI fell below 50.0 for the first time since August 2016, while the China PMI recovered to 49.9 (up from 48.3 in January).

Growth of global manufacturing production eased to a 32-month low in February, as the rate of expansion in new orders stayed close to the stagnation mark. Scratching beneath the surface of the trend in production highlighted noticeable national divergences. The US saw output increase at the slowest pace in 17 months, the euro area reported a contraction for the first time since June 2013 and the rate of decline in Japan was the fastest since May 2016. However, this was partly offset by a recovery in China, where output rose marginally after its weakest performance in two-and-a-half years in January. Broadly similar trends were also seenfor new orders.

The trend in international trade remained lacklustre in February, as new export business contracted for the sixth straight month. Both developed and emerging nations saw declines (on average) during the latest survey month.

Job creation continued in February, with the rate of growth holding steady at January’s modest pace. Employment rose in the US, the euro area, Japan, India, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and Australia. Job losses were seen in China, the UK, Turkey, Poland, Vietnam and Thailand.

Business optimism fell to its second-lowest level in the series history during February. Confidence eased (on average)to its weakestin over six years in developed nations and to a two-month low in emerging markets.

Input price inflation eased slightly in February, reaching a near two-and-half-year low. In contrast, the rate of increase in output charges rose to a three-month high.